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Market
Comment
Mortgage bond prices finished the week higher, which put downward pressure on rates. Rates improved on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Some selling pressure emerged Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning. Rates were steady Friday morning. The data surprised to the downside. Non-farm payrolls fell 23K vs the expected 80K increase. Unemployment was 4.1% vs 4.2%. ISM Index was 55.6 vs 54. Factory orders fell 0.3% vs the expected 0.2% increase. The trade deficit was $73.3B vs $73B. ADP employment was 44K vs 70K. Weekly jobless claims were 199K vs 202K. Productivity rose 1.4% vs 0.6%. Mortgage interest rates finished the week better by approximately 5/8 of a discount point.
LOOKING
AHEAD
|
Economic
Indicator |
Release
Date &
Time |
Consensus
Estimate |
Analysis
|
| Weekly ADP Employment |
Tuesday, Aug. 11,
8:30 am, et
|
15K
|
Important. An indication of employment. Weakness may bring lower rates.
|
| Existing Home Sales |
Tuesday, Aug. 11,
10:00 am, et
|
4.07M
|
Low importance. An indication of mortgage credit demand. Significant weakness may lead to lower rates.
|
| Consumer Price Index |
Wednesday, Aug. 12,
8:30 am, et
|
Up 0.1%,
Core up 0.2%
|
Important. A measure of inflation at the consumer level. Lower than expected increases may lead to lower rates.
|
| Producer Price Index |
Thursday, Aug. 13,
8:30 am, et
|
Up 0.1%,
Core up 0.2%
|
Important. An indication of inflationary pressures at the producer level. Lower figures may lead to lower rates.
|
| Weekly Jobless Claims |
Thursday, Aug. 13,
8:30 am, et
|
200K
|
Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.
|
| Retail Sales |
Friday, Aug. 14,
8:30 am, et
|
Up 0.2%
|
Important. A measure of consumer demand. A smaller than expected increase may lead to lower mortgage rates.
|
| U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
Friday, Aug. 14,
10:00 am, et
|
54
|
Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
|
EIA
“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. EIA collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment. EIA is the nation's premier source of energy information, and, by law, its data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. government.
EIA conducts a comprehensive data collection program that covers the full spectrum of energy sources, end uses, and energy flows. EIA also prepares informative energy analyses, monthly short-term forecasts of energy market trends, and long-term U.S. and international energy outlooks. EIA disseminates its data, analyses, and other products primarily through its website, EIA.gov.” The July 7th short term energy outlook from the EIA said, “We now expect most crude oil production to return to near pre-conflict averages by the end of this year and for the majority of shut-in crude oil production to be back online in the first quarter of 2027.” Lower energy prices could put downward pressure on mortgage interest rates as lower inflation factors into the Fed’s rate policy decisions in the months ahead. The next EIA energy outlook is expected August 11th.
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