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Market
Comment
Mortgage bond prices finished the week slightly higher which put a little downward pressure on rates. Trading was within a relatively narrow range even surrounding the mid-week Fed meeting. The Fed kept rates unchanged and saw balanced risks between employment and inflation. Producer prices were higher than expected which ignited fears Friday morning. Producer prices rose 0.5% vs 0.2%. The core rose 0.7% vs 0.2%. YOY Core was up 3.3% vs 2.9%. Durable goods orders rose 5.3% vs 3.7%. FHFA housing was up 0.6% vs 0.3%. Consumer confidence was 84.5 vs 90.9. The trade deficit was $56.8B vs $40.5B. Weekly jobless claims were 209K vs 205K. Mortgage interest rates finished the week better by approximately 1/8 of a discount point.
LOOKING
AHEAD
|
Economic
Indicator |
Release
Date &
Time |
Consensus
Estimate |
Analysis
|
|
ISM Index |
Monday, Feb. 2,
10:00 am, et
|
48.3
|
Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
|
| JOLTs Job Openings |
Tuesday, Feb. 3,
10:00 am, et
|
7.1M
|
Important. All positions that are open (not filled) on the last business day of the month. Lower figure may lead to lower rates.
|
| ADP Employment |
Wednesday, Feb. 4,
8:30 am, et
|
40K
|
Important. An indication of employment. Weakness may bring lower rates.
|
| Weekly Jobless Claims |
Thursday, Feb. 5,
8:30 am, et
|
210K
|
Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.
|
| Employment |
Friday, Feb. 6,
8:30 am, et
|
4.4%,
Payrolls +70K
|
Very important. An increase in unemployment or weakness in payrolls may bring lower rates.
|
| U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
Friday, Feb. 6,
10:00 am, et
|
55.8
|
Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
|
| Consumer Credit |
Friday, Feb. 6,
3:00 pm, et
|
$9.8B
|
Low importance. A significantly large increase may lead to lower mortgage interest rates.
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JOLTS Report
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) program of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) produces monthly and annual estimates of job openings, hires, and separations for the nation. “The data is collected from sampled establishments on a voluntary basis. The number of unfilled jobs, used to calculate the job openings rate, is an important measure of the unmet demand for labor. With that statistic, it is possible to paint a more complete picture of the U.S. labor market than by looking solely at the unemployment rate, a measure of the excess supply of labor. Information on labor turnover is valuable in the proper analysis and interpretation of labor market developments and as a complement to the unemployment rate.”
The BLS recently announced a change to the data that will impact monthly figures. They stated, “The State Job Openings and Labor Turnover news release will move from a monthly news release to an annual news release. The last monthly news release will occur with the December 2025 data published in February 2026. The first annual news release will be in July 2026. Going forward, monthly estimates for the prior calendar year will be published each year along with the annual news release. The annual news release will incorporate benchmark revisions to JOLTS national estimates, updated Current Employment Statistics (CES) employment estimates, and updated Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data.”
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