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Market
Comment
Mortgage bond prices finished the week near unchanged which resulted in very little rate movement. Trading was back and forth within a very narrow range throughout the week despite significant stock volatility. AI company valuations and potential U.S. military actions abroad dominated headlines. The data was mixed with some emerging price pressures. Factory Orders fell 0.7% vs the expected 0.5% decline. Consumer confidence was 91.2 vs 87. The FHFA house price index rose 0.1% vs 0.3%. Weekly jobless claims were 212K vs 215K. Producer prices rose 0.5% vs 0.3%. The core was up 0.8% vs 0.3%. Year over year core prices rose 3.6% vs 3%. Mortgage interest rates finished the week with discount points near unchanged.
LOOKING
AHEAD
|
Economic
Indicator |
Release
Date &
Time |
Consensus
Estimate |
Analysis
|
| ISM Index |
Monday, March 2,
10:00 am, et
|
52.3
|
Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
|
| Weekly ADP Employment |
Wednesday, March 4,
8:30 am, et
|
45K
|
Important. An indication of employment. Weakness may bring lower rates.
|
| Fed “Beige Book” |
Wednesday, March 4,
2:00 pm, et
|
None
|
Important. This Fed report details current economic conditions across the US. Signs of weakness may lead to lower rates.
|
| Weekly Jobless Claims |
Thursday, March 5,
8:30 am, et
|
216K
|
Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.
|
| Preliminary Q4 Productivity |
Thursday, March 5,
8:30 am, et
|
Up 4.8%
|
Important. A measure of output per hour. Improvement may lead to lower mortgage rates.
|
| Employment |
Friday, March 6,
8:30 am, et
|
4.3%,
Payrolls +60K
|
Very important. An increase in unemployment or weakness in payrolls may bring lower rates.
|
| Consumer Credit |
Friday, March 6,
3:00 pm, et
|
$11.8B
|
Low importance. A significantly large increase may lead to lower mortgage interest rates.
|
Fed "Beige Book"
The Fed “Beige Book” is a summary of economic conditions from the Federal Reserve regional districts. Each of the 12 Districts collects anecdotal information on regional economic conditions through interviews with business contacts, economists, market experts, Bank and Branch directors, and other sources. The release takes place eight times a year approximately two weeks ahead of each of the Federal Open Market Committee meetings. The report is used at the FOMC meetings, which tends to be one of the most influential events in the market.
Market participants are continually attempting to determine what FOMC interest rate policy will be ahead of the next meeting. Any deviation from expectations usually results in extreme short-term market volatility. The timing of the “Beige Book” provides analysts a valuable look at one of the many factors the FOMC considers in setting interest rate policy.
The most recent release, dated January 14, 2026, indicated that overall economic activity increased at a slight to modest pace in eight Districts, with three reporting no change and one a modest decline. This represented an improvement compared to prior cycles where most Districts reported little change. This week’s release will provide insight into future Fed policy.
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