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Market
Comment
Mortgage bond prices finished the week sharply lower which put upward pressure on rates. Rates worsened almost every day as inflation fears increased. The Middle East conflict remained the focus of global markets. The Strait of Hormuz is responsible for approximately 20 to 30 percent of the world’s daily oil shipments and remained disrupted. Oil prices rose nearly 14% for the week as a result. The data showed solid economic growth but was overshadowed by the Middle East conflict. Weekly ADP was 54.75K vs 40.25K. Retail sales rose 1.7% vs 1.4%. Weekly jobless claims were 214K vs 212K. Consumer sentiment was 49.8 vs 47.6. Mortgage interest rates finished the week worse by approximately 1/2 of a discount point.
LOOKING
AHEAD
|
Economic
Indicator |
Release
Date &
Time |
Consensus
Estimate |
Analysis
|
| FHFA House Price Index |
Tuesday, April 28,
10:00 am, et
|
Up 0.2%
|
Moderately Important. A measure of single-family house prices. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
|
| Consumer Confidence |
Tuesday, April 28,
10:00 am, et
|
89.5
|
Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
|
| Durable Goods Orders |
Wednesday, April 29,
8:30 am, et
|
Up 0.5%
|
Important. An indication of the demand for “big ticket” items. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
|
| Housing Starts |
Wednesday, April 29,
8:30 am, et
|
1.4M
|
Important. A measure of housing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
|
| Fed Meeting Adjourns |
Wednesday, April 29,
2:15 pm, et
|
No rate changes
|
Important. Few expect the Fed to change rates, but some volatility may surround the adjournment of this meeting.
|
| Q1 GDP |
Thursday, April 30,
8:30 am, et
|
Up 2.1%
|
Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates.
|
| Personal Income and Outlays |
Thursday, April 30,
8:30 am, et
|
Up 0.3%,
Up 0.9%
|
Important. A measure of consumers’ ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
|
| PCE Core Inflation |
Thursday, April 30,
8:30 am, et
|
Up 0.3%
|
Important. A measure of price increases for all domestic personal consumption. Weaker figure may help rates improve.
|
| ISM Index |
Friday, May 1,
10:00 am, et
|
53.2
|
Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
|
Fed Meeting
The Federal Reserve's next FOMC meeting on April 28-29, 2026, is widely expected to result in no change to the benchmark federal funds rate, which has held steady in the 3.5%-3.75% range since late 2025. Officials will likely maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance without signaling imminent cuts or hikes.
Analysts will focus on Chair Powell's press conference and any subtle shifts in language around risks. Recent FOMC minutes and projections show growing openness to considering future rate hikes if inflation persists. However, the median outlook still envisions possibly one modest cut later in 2026.
Be alert surrounding the Fed meeting as mortgage interest rate volatility may occur. A cautious approach to float/lock decisions is prudent amid the current economic uncertainty.
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