|
Market
Comment
Mortgage bond prices finished the week sharply lower which put significant upward pressure on rates. Rates bounced up and down throughout the week in volatile trading and ended on a sour note. Energy inflation and strong job growth pressured rates higher. Oil prices rose approximately 6% for the week despite a mid-week pullback. The data was mixed with generally solid employment figures. ADP employment was 122K vs 117K. JOLTS Jobs openings were 7.618M vs 6.88M. Factory orders rose 4.8% vs 4.6%. Weekly jobless claims were 225K vs 213K. Productivity rose 0.3% vs 0.5%. Unemployment was 4.3% as expected. Mortgage interest rates finished the week worse by approximately 3/8 of a discount point.
LOOKING
AHEAD
|
Economic
Indicator |
Release
Date &
Time |
Consensus
Estimate |
Analysis
|
|
Weekly ADP Employment |
Tuesday, June 9,
8:30 am, et
|
38K
|
Important. An indication of employment. Weakness may bring lower rates.
|
| Trade Data |
Tuesday, June 9,
8:30 am, et
|
$55.5B deficit
|
Important. Affects the value of the dollar. A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates.
|
| Existing Home Sales |
Tuesday, June 9,
10:00 am, et
|
4.05M
|
Low importance. An indication of mortgage credit demand. Significant weakness may lead to lower rates.
|
| Consumer Price Index |
Wednesday, June 10,
8:30 am, et
|
Up 0.5%,
Core up 0.3%
|
Important. A measure of inflation at the consumer level. Lower than expected increases may lead to lower rates.
|
| Producer Price Index |
Thursday, June 11,
8:30 am, et
|
Up 0.8%,
Core up 0.4%
|
Important. An indication of inflationary pressures at the producer level. Lower figures may lead to lower rates.
|
| Weekly Jobless Claims |
Thursday, June 11,
8:30 am, et
|
225K
|
Important. An indication of employment. Higher claims may result in lower rates.
|
| U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment |
Friday, June 12,
10:00 am, et
|
46
|
Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
|
Payrolls Surge
Payrolls data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a surge in May which resulted in mortgage interest rate increases last Friday. The release noted, “Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 172,000 in May” which was significantly higher than the expected 85,000 increase. “Job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, local government, and health care. Leisure and hospitality added 70,000 jobs in May, well above the average monthly gain of
14,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, food services and drinking places added
48,000 jobs. Employment in local government rose by 55,000, largely reflecting a gain in local government, excluding education (+44,000).”
The data reinforced the consensus that the Fed will hold steady with any rate adjustments for now. However, a potential rate hike the latter portion of this year is now back on the table. Some prediction markets note the odds of a Fed hike in 2026 surged to approximately 52–68%, driven by stronger-than-expected job growth and persistent inflation. The payrolls data also pushed any 2026 rate cut odds to single digits.
Floating in this environment is very risky as we saw last week. A cautious approach to float/lock decisions is prudent amid market uncertainty.
To
unsubscribe, please hit "reply" and include unsubscribe in
the subject line.
Copyright
2026. All Rights Reserved. Mortgage Market
Information Services, Inc. www.ratelink.com
The information contained herein is
believed to be accurate, however no representation or warranties are
written or implied.
|
