Newsletter-December 4th, 2017    
Provided by
Ginger Peel
Ginger Peel
Mortgage Loan Officer
NMLS #224687

Bank of Utah
11075 So State Street, Suite A & B
Sandy, UT 84070
Phone: (801) 285-5016
Fax: (801) 781-2741
Cell Phone: (801) 455-6745
E-Mail: gpeel@bankofutah.com
Website: http://www.loansbyginger.com
   
 

Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices finished the week lower which put upward pressure on rates.  Trading was quiet the first portion of the week.  Stocks surged higher the latter portion of the week as the DOW hit record levels.  Housing prices continued to rise according to both the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and the Case Shiller releases.  Low inventories coupled with low interest rates are two reasons cited for the year over year rise in prices.  Consumer confidence was stronger than expected.  Revised GDP rose 3.3% versus the expected 3% reading.  This figure moved in the right direction but many analysts still want to see higher GDP figures with so much support from the Federal Reserve.  Core PCE inflation rose 0.2% as expected.  ISM index was 58.2 as expected.  We ended the week worse by 1/4 of a discount point.


LOOKING AHEAD

Economic
Indicator

Release
Date & Time

Consensus
Estimate


Analysis

Factory Orders

Monday, Dec. 4,
10:00 am, et

Up 1.1%

Important.  A measure of manufacturing sector strength.  Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Trade Data

Tuesday, Dec. 5,
8:30 am, et

$43.5B deficit

Important.  Affects the value of the dollar.  A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates.
ADP Employment

Wednesday, Dec. 6,
8:30 am, et

235K

Important.  An indication of employment.  Weakness may bring lower rates.
Revised Q3 Productivity

Wednesday, Dec. 6,
8:30 am, et

Up 3.1% Important.  A measure of output per hour.  Improvement may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Weekly Jobless Claims

Thursday, Dec. 7,
8:30 am, et

238K

Important.  An indication of employment.   Higher claims may result in lower rates.
Consumer Credit

Thursday, Dec. 7,
3:00 pm, et

$21B

Low importance.  A significantly large increase may lead to lower mortgage interest rates.
Employment

Friday, Dec. 8,
8:30 am, et

4.1%,
Payrolls +262K

Very important.  An increase in unemployment or weakness in payrolls may bring lower rates.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Friday, Dec. 8,
10:00 am, et

99 Important.  An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend.  Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Jobs and the Economy

Our economy in the US is driven by consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).  Three driving forces, low unemployment, low commodity costs, and a solid housing market currently help consumer spending and keep the economic recovery moving in the right direction.



It is simple; when a person has a job they can spend money.  Low food and energy costs, items that must be purchased to keep a household running, increases money that could be used for other “luxury” items like TV’s and cars.  Lastly, many households relied on home equity to enhance lifestyles, pay for college, or make major improvements to the house.  Rising home prices make that a possibility again.



The abundance of data this week will provide insight into the current state of the economy and most releases have the potential to result in mortgage interest rate changes.



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   MORTGAGE MARKET IN REVIEW Newsletter-December 4th, 2017